Idaho Falls, Idaho 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

109
FXUS65 KPIH 141733
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1133 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued moderate northeast flow in Snake River plain means
  Lake Wind Advisory for American Falls Reservoir.

- Warming and drying starts today, with humidity reaching
  critically dry thresholds at most low elevations by Tuesday.

- Winds return Tuesday afternoon, potentially causing critical
  fire weather conditions that continue through at least Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

The "storm" track, if you can call it that, in western North
America continues to drop lows from northern Canada southward
but staying east of the Continental Divide. Despite upper level
lows in MT, The surface feature continues to be high pressure to
the north and northwest to northeast flow at the surface while
upper levels are northwest. The wind once again should reach
Lake Wind Advisory levels for the northeast wind situation at
the American Fall Reservoir. On Monday, an approaching surface
low in Canada drops into MT east of the divide, and breaks up
this northeast flow pattern for the Snake River plain. By
afternoon, wind should be the more usual southwest to west wind,
while it remains light. By Tue afternoon the next low is
stronger and wind will be strong enough to cause some areas to
have gusts to 25-30 mph. With afternoon mixing, it is likely
that this afternoon gusty wind will spread eastward and not let
up until Fri.

There appears to be some moisture above 700mb moving through
occasionally over the next three days. Today it is here in
mostly the morning, then Mon the same, then again on Mon
evening. The farther north, the more it may reach partly sunny
to mostly cloudy. In no way will it generate any shower
activity in the forecast area; this is true through Sat.

Today temperatures will be up slightly, but once the northerly
flow shuts down, temperatures will spike upward for Tue and stay
very warm for the time of year through the rest of the forecast
period. Thankfully, this means the air cannot cool down to
provoke any type of Frost or Freeze product. Nothing record
setting as even at low elevations the peak temperatures will be
in the lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1133 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Northerly flow continues across East Idaho today, though SUN is
expected to briefly turn to cross-runway southwesterly flow this
afternoon. Winds decrease to light and variable almost
everywhere overnight. SUN returns to southerly upslope flow late
Monday morning. VFR skies continue.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 143 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

A warming and drying trend is setting up and will bring
afternoon humidity into the critical values below 15 percent as
early as today in western portions and by Tuesday everywhere at
the low elevations, save for the Targhee portion of the
Caribou-Targhee NF. An incoming low will kick up wind as early
as Tue afternoon and continue the strong wind Wed and Thu.
Critical fire weather conditions will be here as fuel moisture
continues to drop. Depending on how fast those reach critical
levels, then there may be Red Flag Warnings needed Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Messick
AVIATION...DMH
FIRE WEATHER...Messick